Don't wait to buy. There will be queues for photovoltaic panels

The market may soon see a huge increase in demand for photovoltaic panels. This is due to the situation in the world's largest PV market in China. Due to changes in legislation in China, there may be a shortage of solar panels in other markets.

Rising market prices
Across Europe, the availability of PV panels is decreasing, especially in certain categories. A key factor in this trend is the upcoming regulatory change in the RES sector in China.

From July 2025, renewable energy projects in China will be supported by the state under less attractive conditions. China has announced that from July 2025 it will no longer support the sale of RES (renewable energy) electricity at fixed prices as in the past. Instead, it will introduce market-based prices for RES electricity sold on a CfD basis (i.e. Contracts for Difference, as used in the UK for example).

This change in regulation has already generated huge interest in new PV installations in China, leading to an increase in domestic demand. Ultimately, this has the effect of limiting the availability of modules in other regions such as Europe - at least until June this year.

Local developers will rush to complete projects before China's new pricing system for renewable electricity generation comes into effect in July. This increased demand, combined with newly targeted capacity constraints, is likely to lead to higher PV module prices.

What happens next?
Chinese producers may now prioritise domestic demand, which will limit availability in international markets, particularly in Europe.

As a result, PV module prices are expected to rise in the first half of this year. Therefore, securing an early supply of panels is a sensible strategy for investors planning to complete their projects this year.

What will happen in the market now-after the price war that lasted in PV until the end of 2024 has ended-cannot be said with certainty.

However, one thing is clear. For investors planning new PV installations this year, the safest strategy is to secure an early supply of panels.