The six major global trends that will affect photovoltaics in 2024

China's dominance
China's dominance in global PV panel production continues. By 2024, China will cover 80% of the world's installed capacity with its production.

This trend will not change this year. According to a recently published policy update by China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, while minimum capacity requirements have been tightened, they will have minimal impact on the problem of excess production capacity compared to real demand.

The privileged position of the Top 10 manufacturers
In 2024, the top ten panel manufacturers supplied 52% of installed PV capacity to the global market. By the end of 2024, the total production capacity of all panel manufacturers has reached almost three times the expected demand in 2025.

Slowing growth
Growth in global PV installations slowed year-on-year from 77% in 2023 to 17% in 2024. Analysts also expect global PV installations to continue to grow, but the growth rate will remain at a roughly similar level to 2024.

The problem of overcapacity
Huge overcapacity in the entire supply chain (from polysilicon processing to ingots, wafers, cells and panels) remained at unsustainable levels in 2024. In practice, this means that downward pressure on prices will persist in 2025.
Following the large-scale transition away from mono PERC technology in 2024, the majority of PV panel production now consists of TOPCon technology.

The TOP 5 paradox
The top five manufacturers account for 54% of global panel production. It is still a paradox that panel manufacturing is the least consolidated part of the PV industry supply chain.

Deepening consolidation
Consolidation of production is not only taking place at the panel level. In recent years, there has also been consolidation in polysilicon, silicon wafer and cell processing, where the Top 10 manufacturers have strengthened their dominance.

Analysts expect more manufacturers to be squeezed out of the market in 2025, but this will have little impact on the level of consolidation given the scale of production of the Top 10 manufacturers.